THE MARTIANS' VISION OF THE FUTURE
By
George Marx (1927-2002)
George Marx, Professor at the Department of Atomic Physics,
Eötvös University, Budapest, a member of the Hungarian Academy
of Sciences and of the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA), played an
important role in particle physics, in theoretical astrophysics and also in
bioastronomy. An eminent teacher, Prof. Marx lectured and was a regular guest
professor at major universities world-wide. His book, „The Voice of
Martians” was first published in 1993; second edition Hungarian Academy
Press, Budapest (1997). This paper is essentially a chapter from the last
quoted book.
It is well known that it was the U.S., and soon thereafter
the Soviet Union, England, France, and China, where nuclear power was
accomplished. In addition, a number of highly talented physicists of other
nations contributed to the success, e.g. Germans (Hans
Bethe, Felix Bloch, Otto Hahn, Rudolf Peierls), Austrians (Otto Robert Frisch,
Hans Halban, Lise Meitner, Victor Weisskopf), Italians (Eduardo Amaldi, Enrico
Fermi, Bruno Pontecorvo, Emilio Segré). Teller used to emphasize: -
It was the work of many people. - Why are just Hungarian scientists considered
to be, in some sense, "aliens"?1
The birth of a legend
- Enrico Fermi was a man with outstanding talents, he had many interests
outside his own particular field. He was credited with asking famous
questions. There are long preambles to Fermi's questions like this:
- The universe is vast, containing myriads of stars, many of them
not unlike our Sun. Many of these stars are likely to have
planets circling around them. A fair fraction of these planets will have
liquid water on their surface and a gaseous atmosphere. The energy pouring down
from a star will cause the synthesis of organic compounds, turning the ocean
into a thin, warm soup. These chemicals will join each other to produce a
self-reproducing system. The simplest living things will multiply, evolve by
natural selection and become more complicated till eventually active, thinking
creatures will emerge. Civilization, science, and technology will
follow. Then, yearning for fresh worlds, they will travel to neighboring
planets, and later to planets of nearby stars. Eventually they should spread
out all over the Galaxy. These highly exceptional and talented people
could hardly overlook such a beautiful place as our Earth. - "And
so, " - Fermi came to his overwhelming question, - "if
all this has been happening, they should have arrived here by now, so where
are they ? " - It was Leo Szilard,
a man with an impish sense of humor, who supplied the perfect reply to Fermi's
rethoric: - "They are among us," - he said, - "but they
call themselves Hungarians. "
This is Francis Crick's version of the myth.2 - A saying
circulated among us that two intelligent species live on Earth: Humans
and Hungarians - as Isaac Asimov recalled. Hans Bethe wondered quite
"seriously" whether a brain like von Neumann's does not
indicate a species superior to that of man.3 -
Richard Rhodes4 has
reported: - At Princeton a saying gained currency that Neumann, the youngest
member of the new Institute for Advanced Studies, twenty-nine in 1933, was
indeed a demigod but that he had made a thorough, detailed study of human
beings and could imitate them perfectly. - The myth of the Martian origin
of the Hungarian scientists who entered world history on American soil during
World War II probably originated in Los Alamos. Leon Lederman, director of the
Fermilab, reported possible hidden intentions5: -
The production of scientists and mathematicians in the early 20th century was
so prolific that many otherwise calm observers believe Budapest was settled by
Martians in a plan to infiltrate and take over the planet Earth. - (See
Kovács' map in this volume, p.45.) As a matter of fact, these suspicious
Hungarians - Theodore von Kármán, John von Neumann, Leo
Szilard - enjoyed the myth. Edward Teller became especially happy of
his E.T. initials, but he complained about
indiscretion, - Von Kármán must have been talking.
Yankee magazine [March 1980] reported this landing in detail:
- Gabor, von Kármán, Kemeny, von Neumann, Szilard, Teller,
and Wigner were born in the same quarter of Budapest. No wonder the scientists
in Los Alamos accepted the idea that well over one thousand years ago a Martian
spaceship crashlanded somewhere in the center of Europe. There are three firm
proofs of the extraterrestrial origins of the Hungarians: they like to wander
about (like gypsies radiating out from the same region). They speak an
exceptionally simple and logical language which has not the slightest
connection with the language of their neighbors. And they are so much smarter
than the terrestrials. (In a slight Martian accent John G. Kemeny
added an explanation, namely, that it is so much easier to learn reading and
writing in Hungarian than in English or French, that Hungarian kids have much
more time left to study mathematics.)
Valentine Telegdi recalled his youth [talk in Budapest 1989]: - For a young Hungarian abroad it may be good to hide his
Hungarian descent, because if it is made known, too much will be
expected of him. People will know that he is one of the Martians of
exceptionally high intelligence who use that incomprehensible language. There
was another profession besides science which was crowded by Hungarian talents,
the cinema, - an art born from the marriage of traditional drama and modern
technology.
Landing in Hollywood
- Legend has it that Hollywood was founded by Hungarians. (At least in
part.)6 -
Sándor Korda was born in Hungary, in the fateful year 1919
he emigrated to Germany, from there to Hollywood, but reached the peak of his
career in England (The Private Life of Henry VIII and Lady Hamilton),
and became Sir Alexander Korda. The names of
Hungarians in Hollywood make a long list, from Adolph Zukor - born in Ricse (Paramount
Pictures) to William Fox - born in Tolcsva, near Tokaj (20th Century
Fox) as founders; from Michael Curtiz - born in Budapest (Casablanca and
The Adventures of Robin Hood) to Andy Vajna - born in Budapest (Rambo
and Evita) as directors; from Menyhard Lengyel ( Typhoon and Ninotshka)
to Joe Esterhas - born in Csákánydoroszló (Flashdance
and Basic Instinct, working now on a script about the 1956 revolt of
Hungary) as screenwriters; from Laszlo Kovacs - born in Budapest (Easy
Riders and Free Willy) to Willy Zigmond (Close
Encounter of the Third Kind and The Dear Hunter) as
cinematographers; from Bela Lugosi - born in Lugos (Frankenstein and Dracula)
to Zsa Zsa Gabor - born in Budapest (Moulin Rouge and A Nightmare on Elm Street) as
actors, and so on. A special attraction to atoms has been shown by Ciccolina -
born as Ilona Staller in Budapest (in her Orgia Atomica). There is also
a list of second generation Hungarian actors like Tony Curtis - fluent in
Hungarian (stylishly the Lobster Man from Mars and The Boston
Strangler who Likes it Hot) through Paul Newman (
The Sting, then Exodus, followed by a Long Hot
Summer) up to Leslie Howard - born László Steiner (A Free
Soul, later The Scarlet Pimpernel, to be Captured! and then Gone
with the Wind). (Howard was wounded in World War I; while flying an
airplane near Gibraltar on a secret mission in World War II
he was shot down in action, according to myth at the direct order of Hitler. ) Hungarians have been laureated by Oscar Awards: George
Cukor (director), József Rufusz (cartoon director), Vilmos Zsigmond
(cinematographer), Adolph Zukor (for life's work). On the wall of Zukor's
office there was an inscription:
TO BE A HUNGARIAN IS NOT ENOUGH.
In a low voice Adolph added: - But it may help. - Non-Hungarians in
Hollywood used to say, - If you have a Hungarian friend, you don't need an
enemy. - According to Norman Macrae, the biographer of John von Neumann,
- The American word "movie" probably derived from the Hungarian
"mozi. " Cynics says that Hungarians created America's Hollywood
before other Hungarians less destructively created America's A-bomb.
István Szabó (1938-), the Oscar winner Hungarian director,
recently made a film for the BBC about the capital city of Hungary. - I
called this film "Staying Afloat" because to me Budapest is like a
boat trying not to capsize as it is buffeted by waves from all directions.
We've been lashed by history and we mustn't let it suck us under. The
very air of Budapest exudes this daily struggle for survival, this feeling that
we're clinging to the rails; this is why I love my city.
Coming from outer space
There is only one single factual piece of evidence about the descent from
planet Mars: there is a mount named Von Kármán Crater on
the Red Planet. Hungarians left more traces on the Moon: a huge ring in the
southern part of the far side of the Moon has also been named Von
Kármán Crater, honoring the pioneer of supersonic flight.
East of it is the tiny crater honoring Imre Izsák, the
Hungarian-American expert of celestial mechanics of the Space Age (1929-1965).
In the North-West, near the lunar Terminator Line, halfway between H.G. Wells and F. Joliot is the great Szilard
Crater of 122 km
in diameter. East of it astronauts may find the Von Neumann Crater. Further
l9th century Hungarians, who did not cross the Ocean, also deserved place on
the Lunar Map: in the southern part of the far side are János Bolyai (pioneer
of non-Euclidean geometry, 1802-1880); a bit east of it is Roland
Eötvös. A tiny crater represents Gyula Fényi, the
Jesuit solar astronomer (1845-1927), another one the Austro-Hungarian Nobel
laureate, Richard Zsigmondy. But there is a Martian who proved that the
craters on the Moon are not products of lunar volcanism but had been created by
impacts of meteors from outside: Egon Orowan, while working on
plasticity and fractures in solids, studied high resolution photographs brought
back by the Apollo missions.7
(There is indeed an asteroid named Teller orbiting around the Sun,
discovered by E.F. Helin in 1989.)
Speaking an alien tongue
An obvious explanation of the myth of the Martians may be their strange
language: its grammar and vocabulary are quite distinct from those of the
Indo-European languages. Kármán and Bárány
proudly accented the á in their names at all times, in spite
of the opposition of computerized word processors. (The Báránys
did so through generations.) When polyglott Valentine Telegdi decided to learn
Japanese, he rushed to Budapest to buy a Japanese language book written in
Hungarian, because Hungarian grammar is similar to Japanese, while for an
English author it is difficult to explain how Japanese think and speak.
(Chinese, Japanese, Koreans put family name first, given name as
last; in Europe only the Hungarian language follows this rule.)
According to myth, at a top secret meeting of the Manhattan Project General
Groves left for the gents' room. Szilard then said: - Perhaps we may
now continue in Hungarian! - Hungarian emigrees enjoyed speaking their
mother tongue whenever a chance offered itself. This has made them look
suspicious. Los Alamos was a place of top security. General Groves was annoyed
that Neumann and Wigner had frequent telephone conversations in
Hungarian. [Teller, talk in Budapest 1991.] The "thick Hungarian
accent" was often heard even in the corridors of the Pentagon. (The Lugosi
accent made the alien power of Dracula, the count from the faraway Transylvania
even more realistic. )
This explanation of the myth, however, is certainly not sufficient. Let us
quote now George Békésy:
- If a person traveling outside Hungary is recognized as a Hungarian due
to his accent, something which - beyond a certain age - is impossible to drop,
the question is asked almost in every case: "How is it possible
that a country as small as Hungary has given the world so many internationally
renown scientists?" There are Hungarians who have tried to give an answer.
For my part: I cannot find an answer, but I would mention one thing. When I
lived in Switzerland, everything was peaceful, quiet and secure; we had no problems earning a living. In Hungary, life was
different, and we all were involved in an ongoing struggle for almost
everything which we wanted, although this struggle never caused anybody's perdition.
Sometimes we won; sometimes we lost; but we always survived. It did not bring
an end to things, not in my case anyway. People need such challenges,
and these have existed throughout the history of Hungary.
Crossroads in space-time
It is a fact of history that the great figures of human culture are not
distributed evenly in space and time. They concentrated, for example, in
democratic Athens (Aristotle and Sophocles), while the city was fighting
against Persian invasions; in renaissance Florence (Michelangelo and Galileo),
in a city struggling with the supremacy of the Pope; at the dawn of the English
industrial revolution (Shakespeare and Newton), while fighting the Spanish
Armada. Quiet periods require only social adjustment. Under a changing climate,
however, old schemes no longer work, such conditions encourage creative
individuals. If a very different final truth is offered each month,
young people learn critical thinking, and become more interested in facts than
in axioms. During the recent political turmoil a joke circulated: - What is
the most unpredictable thing today in Hungary? The past! - Psychology
teaches us that an impact-rich environment cultivates talent. To support this
view, let's quote one of the strangest Martians, Arthur Koestler8:
- When Tom Corbett, Space Cadett, behaves on the Third Planet of Orion
exactly in the same way as he does in a drugstore in Minnesota, one is tempted
to ask him: "Was your journey really necessary?"
There may be historical reasons for this alien coherence of the
Hungarians: - Hungary was usually in turmoil; a situation attributable
mainly to an accident of geography.9 -
As Kati Marton (Mrs Holbrook), who left Hungary as a child in 1957, said,
l0
- My parents had too much history. -
My thesis is that Hungary (together with her Central-European neighbors) has
been at the crossroads of history, where the routes from Rome (Catholicism),
Germany (Reformation), Russia (Eastern Orthodox Christianity), Osman Empire
(Islam) met each other, presenting alternatives and igniting conflicts. Armies
from East and West were marching on the roads through centuries. We have
learned agriculture from the Slavs, the Renaissance arrived from Italy, and
industry came from Germany. Through one and a half centuries the armies of the Osman
Empire took everything what they could from the Hungarian peasants - but pigs;
this is why pork is the favorite meat of the Hungarians till today. Grapes were
introduced by the veterans of the Roman legions, in oder to make wine.
Beer-brewing came from Germany. The Russians have shown how to distill vodka.
And the Turks introduced the strong black coffee, a present national drink of
the Hungarians. So much about the first Hungarian millenium.
A
hundred years ago (when the Martian heroes of this book were born), a
German-speaking Emperor-King ruled Hungary, supported by feudal landlords. But
the industrial revolution was already in full swing, having brought the
parliamentary system, compulsory education (1868) - and unsolved social
contradictions. In 1896 politicians in Parliament spoke of the glory of the
past thousand years of Hungarian history, but the world exposition, organized
in Budapest to honor the millenium, presented new physical inventions and the
first underground metro system on the continent was already operational in
Budapest (second only to London).
As
the 20th century arrived, the Austro-Hungarian Empire started playing the
superpower: Turkey was expelled from most of the Balkan Peninsula.
Austria-Hungary occupied Bosnia (1908), pushing Serbia toward an alliance with
Russia. After a Serbian nationalist murdered the Habsburg crown-prince in
Sarajevo (1914), war was declared against Serbia. Russia rushed to help the
Serbs, Germany responded by attacking Russia, France and England declared war
against Germany. Thus World War I was started, and was lost. After the military
collapse Michael Károlyi, the liberal Count rose against the Austrian
emperor and created a pro-Western democratic Hungarian Republic (31
October 1918). But with the encouragement of the Western Powers the neighboring
countries attacked Hungary. Károlyi resigned, and a communist government
organized resistance - looking for help from Moscow (21 March 1919). Their
defense efforts could not last for long: Budapest was invaded by foreign troops
(July 1919). Finally a group of Hungarian army officers assembled and took
power (November 1919), made the country formally a kingdom again (but the
military rulers expelled the Habsburg king trying to return). The rightist
military rule took revenge. A wave of emigration began.
Almost
all the Martians attended university and began their careers in Germany, where
and when quantum mechanics had been born. This does not contradict but confirms
our thesis that conflicts cultivate creativity. The 1920s were the
decade of the Weimar Republic, which was full of psychological conflicts: the
democracy was overshadowed by the lost World War ("Dolchstoss von
hinten" ), the dream of a new German Empire (das Dritte Reich), the
trilemma of liberalism-communism-nazism. This fruitful period of the
coexistence of contradicting ideologies lasted there over ten years, before
terminating in the tragedies of the economic crisis, dictatorship, and war.
A
similar critical but creative period of accelerating history was
experienced in Petrograd in the early 1920s, after the fall of the Czar and
before the rise of Stalin, resulting in an explosion of creativity. In Hungary,
however, all these revolutions and counter-revolutions happened in a mere
twelve months!
The
most sensitive period in human life is being a teenager, when one's
personal system of values is built up. The diagram indicates that the Martians
- so successful in later years across the Ocean - attended high schools in
Hungary just at the time of the great World Wars (figure). What a
privilegized time to live in!
When
were the Martians teenagers?

*
The
Jews were expelled from Western Europe 500 years ago, but were welcome in
Eastern Europe for bringing trade and industry, especially by the king of
Poland. In the l9th century Poland was divided among Germany, Austria, and Russia.
Escaping from the pogroms encouraged by Russian orthodox priests, the Jews
moved southwards, towards Hungary, adding to her former Jewish population.
According to ancient law, Jews were forbidden to own land, so they turned
toward trade and industry. Their wealth was increased by the industrial
revolution. At the proposal of the Minister of Culture, the enlightened Baron
József Eötvös (the father of the physicist Roland
Eötvös) the Hungarian Parliament emancipated the Jews (1867). Some of
them were made noblemen for their services in the economy (e.g. the father of George
Hevesy in 1895, the father of Theodore Kármán in 1907,
the father of John Neumann in 1913). One hundred years ago (1895) Baron
Roland Eötvös, a physicist served as Minister of Culture just for a
few months. Because he was an aristocrat, he was able to convince the
conservative Parliament to widen civil rights, including complete religious
freedom and civilian marriage. Around 1900, in the tolerant social climate of
Hungary over 50% of all the lawyers and medical doctors had Jewish roots. In
the eyes of conservative nationalists, however, the Jews remained menacingly
aliens. When the opportunity arose during the right-wing restoration (1920),
the first anti-Jewish law, the numerus clausus was enacted in Hungary;
according to it, the percentage of Jewish university students was restricted to
the percentage of the Jewish population in the country as a whole (1920). Thus
history was even more compressed in time for the Jews. The place of origin for
the wandering Jew, the fictional Leopold Bloom (alias
Virág Lipót) was placed in Hungary by James Joyce, describing the
contemplative day of 16 June 1904 on the streets of Dublin in the novel
appropriately entitled Ulysses.
Theodore
Herzl (1860-1904), the founder of the movement
for an independent Jewish state was born and attended school in Budapest. After
graduation he left Hungary to study law in Vienna (1878), and he died in
Austria. (Now a grand boulvard in Tel-Aviv is named Herzl Street, a hill in
Jerusalem is Mount Herzl.) - The word "Holocaust" (burning completely
to dust) was first used by peace-Nobel-laureate Elie Wiesel.
On
this spot of the globe, within distances less than 1000 km, we find Albanians,
Austrians, Bosnians, Croatians, Czechs, Gypsies, Hungarians, Jews, Slovakians,
Slovenians, each possessing their own language, their own culture, most of them
their own country with a population of a few million or even less. (This may
remind us of the city-states of Greece in Antiquity or the city-states of Italy
in the Renaissance, but here the linguistic-cultural heritages differ even
more.) The tolerated coexistence and sparking conflict of cultures were present
not only in foreign affairs or in the sectors of the Parliament but within the
heads of young individuals. For example, it could happen in the family that the
father spoke Hungarian, the mother spoke German, grandma's family originated
somewhere in Poland, grandpa kept the Jewish feasts, the school teacher taught
Christianity. Around 1900 for Jews especially, no career was open in politics,
or in the army, they had to choose business. If a successful businessman wished
to provide higher education for his son, he had to send him to study science or
engineering. When later the political climate turned stormy for them, with the
wind blowing from the east these young scientists sailed westwards. They landed
on the coast of the New World at a time of great challenges and opportunities.
Their rich political experiences, their open minds, and their critical thinking
were their strengths. Nicholas Kurti told the author [Budapest 1990]:
-
I don't think we were much more talented than the other students in the West,
but we knew that we could not go back.
Our talents would have to be used. There
was no chance for us to waste our talents. -
John von Neumann confirmed: - In this part of Central Europe there was
an external pressure on society, a feeling of extreme insecurity for
individuals, and the necessity to produce the unusual or else face
extinction.4 - Not everyone appreciated this originality. Telegdi recalled Enrico
Fermi saying: - All the Hungarians I met were intelligent or terribly
intelligent. Mostly too intelligent. Well, there are times when it pays to be conventional. Arthur
Koestler expressed the opinion [Ubiquitous Presence]:
-
In contrast to Austria and other small countries, Hungary did not have
linguistic contact with her neighbors; Hungarians form an isolated ethnic
enclave in Europe. Hungarian writers could find a wider readership only by
emigrating, by writing in a foreign tongue. But giving up the mother tongue
usually means the end of the career for a poet, or turns him into an
insignificant journalist. Since World War I the main export of Hungary has
consisted of best-selling journalists, producers, movie stars - the demi-monde
of international culture. They were scattered worldwide by a centrifugal force,
which arises when a small country has plenty of talents without the chance for
their unfolding at home. But later I recognized that this opinion is only one
side of the truth. This demi-monde of the cafes and "gulash-bars" of
Vienna, New York, and Tokyo does not represent the most valuable part of the
Hungarian contribution to culture. The really valuable elements of the
Hungarian "export" were absorbed by the physics, mathematics, and
biology departments of universities, furthermore by hospitals, research
laboratories, state committees, and orchestra. I don't think that a comparable
exodus of scientists and artists ever existed since the fall of Byzantium.
To
Koestler's words let us add one remark. It may be that the language of pictures
was easier for immigrant Hungarians in America that speaking and writing in the
foreign tongue. (Vilma Banky was an admired actor until sound film swept her
off the screen for her Hungarian accent. Tony Curtis was born in the U.S. but
he had to take long phonetics lessons to get rid of his inherited Hungarian
accent.) The French film review Positif recently wrote:
-
Hollywood gained much from the immigrant Hungarian artists' creative
capacities, dedication to imagery, their tendency of daydreaming.11
Crossing
borders
Tourist
brochures advertise Hungary as the country of Tokaji wine, red-hot paprika,
gypsy music, csardas dancing. It is less ackowledged that the coach (1400) and
the match (1836), ball-point pen (1943) and Rubik's cube (1978), alternating
current technology (1885) and streamlined airplanes (1928), tungsten filaments (1905)
and krypton-filled light bulbs (1930), radioactive tracing (1913) and the
nuclear reactor (1942), electronically programmable computers (1946) and
time-sharing computer networks (1960), the BASIC language (1964) and the WORD
word processor (1988), among others, emerged from brains born and schooled in
Hungary, and changed the way we live in the 20th century. Wigner's student,
Alvin Weinberg designed the safe water-moderated nuclear reactors; Wigner's
other student, John Bardeen invented the transistor, opening new gates for
human progress.
The
precondition for the coexistence of different cultures in such a tiny domain of
space-time is tolerance, a merit of Hungarian society, especially in the
early 20th century. Being different enhances critical spirits and creative
associations. There is no better expert on this than Arthur Koestler who
compared his youth to riding a roller-coaster; in his late years he devoted
most of his attention to understanding the interplay between conflict and
creativity.l2 According to him the genius in
science or the arts notices that two concepts - considered beforehand to belong
to completely different dimensions - are deeply interrelated, even identical.
(There are several examples of such insights in the history of science
initiating scientific revolutions: Light / electricity. Heat / disorder. Mass /
energy. DNA / heredity. Struggle / evolution. ) If the student is instructed to
memorize only traditional skills, rules, laws, and boundaries postulated by axioms,
then he may not recognize further interrelations presented by reality. But
if someone is exposed to contradictions, he will not be afraid of wild
associations. As Koestler has put it,
-
The manner in which some of the most important individual discoveries were arrived reminds one more of a sleepwalker's
performance than an electronic brain's.
*
-
Chemistry and physics could only become united after physics had renounced the
dogma of the indivisibility and impermeability of the atom, and chemistry had
renounced its doctrine of ultimate immutable elements. A new
evolutionary departure is only possible after a certain amount of
de-differentiation, a cracking and thawing of the frozen structures resulting
from isolated, over-specialized development. Perhaps our age of specialists is
again in need of creative trespassers.l3
Well,
Martians don't respect political and disciplinary boundaries; this might be how
these refugees from the Wild East of Europe came to deserve the adjective: Mad
Hungarians. It is impossible to classify them according to well-established
disciplines; they show an inherent interdisciplinary spirit. It is hard
to tell whether George von Békésy, Andrew Grove, George de
Hevesy, John von Neumann, George Olah, Michael Polanyi, Edward Teller,
Valentine Telegdi, Eugene P. Wigner, Richard A. Zsigmondy were
chemical engineers (as their university diplomas indicate) or biologists,
mathematicians, physicists, philosophers.
Geophysics
was introduced by Roland Eötvös who, after
having studied the accurate proportionality of inertia and gravity, applied his
gravimeter to peep below the Earth's surface, to find oil. George de Hevesy
applied radioactivity to geochronology as first. Egon Orowan used his
pioneering results on plastic dislocations in solids to explain the motion of
glaciers, drifts of continents, and the formation of mid-oceanic rifts.
Biophysics
is a favorite hunting place for Martians:
Robert Bárány, Erwin Bauer, Albert Szent-Györgyi started
from medicine, George von Békésy, Leo Szilard, Eugene P. Wigner
from engineering, to cross the physics/biology borderline. Wigner estimated the mathematical probability for the
spontaneous emergence of life in the framework of quantum mechanics. Szilard
experimented with evolution and speculated about the biochemistry of aging.
John von Neumann, the mathematician, distinguished the role of software and
hardware in the living cell before biologists clarified the distinct roles of
DNA and enzymes; he constructed cellular automatons on the computer screen to
explain self-reproducing molecules, and wrote a book about the computer and the
brain. Martian mathematicians, physicists, and chemists cannot resist
biological temptations.
Information
theory is an emerging new development on the border
of traditional disciplines. It originated with Leo Szilard's paper on the
conflict between information-creating intelligence and disorder-creating
thermodynamics (1929). John von Neumann recognized first the revolutionary
importance of electronically programmable computers; after artillery
trajectories he applied them to meteorology, economics, and strategy. He was
followed by John Harsanyi, Nobel laureated for developing game theory in
economics for players with imperfect informations. Dennis Gabor received the
Nobel Prize for extracting the complete information carried by a light ray with
the technique of holography. John G. Kemeny recognized that computers
were for every (educated) person, therefore he invented the Beginner's
All-purpose Symbolic Instruction Code (BASIC). Charles Simonyi is now the chief
architect of Microsoft, the most successful software company. Andy Grove is the
president and chief executive officer at Intel, the most successful hardware
company. Hungary prepared the on-board computers for the Russian long-distance
space missions, which reached Mars and Comet Halley. The RECOGNITA - software
made in Hungary - is able to read hand-written texts.
Telling
the future
-
We live in an age in which the pace of technological change is pulsating ever
faster, causing waves that spread
outward everywhere. This increased rate of change will have an impact on you,
no matter what you do for a living - it will bring new competition from new
ways of doing things, from corners that you don't expect. It doesn't matter where you live. Long
distances used to be a moat that both insulated and isolated peop1e from
workers on the other side of the globe. But every day, technology narrows that
moat inch by inch. Every person in the world is on the verge of becoming both
coworker and competitor to every one of us. We
can't stop changes. We can't hide from them. Instead, we must focus on getting
ready for them. - This was written by Andrew
Grove in his book Only the Paranoid Survive.l4
In
a stable world sensing the state of the environment, the so-called
"social adjustment" has survival value. In a variable climate,
however, noticing the trends of change (the time derivative), sensing coming
storms helps one survive. This explains another Martian characteristic: the
capability to predict the future.
-
Leo Szilard proved to be the best prognosticator: he was able to foresee events
better than anybody else I know - Ben Liebowitz said. When World War I erupted, Leo
Szilard, then 16, told his classmates: - I am not afraid to be called to
the army; Austria, Germany, and Russia will collapse. - This prediction sounded strange because Russia was on the side
opposite to that of Austria-Hungary and Germany, but Szilard turned out to be
right! After World War I, in the 1920s he tried to organize a Bund in Berlin, which "might stand ready to
exercise the functions of government if and when the parliamentary system in
Germany collapses, one or two generations hence. "15 Hitler took power in 1933.
Szilard left Berlin one day before Hitler
ordered that Jews must not leave Germany. He did not stay in Austria either
because in 1936 he anticipated, - Nazi Germany will invade Austria in
two years. - So it happened in 1938. In London
he told Michael Polanyi: - I shall go to America one year before war
breaks out in Europe. - He sailed in 1938,
World War II started in 1939. After the war (1945), there was a disagreement
concerning the Russian capability to construct an atomic bomb. Vannevar Bush,
director at the U.S. Office of Scientific Research and Development guessed a
decade; Szilard predicted five years. The first Soviet atomic bomb actually
exploded in September 1949. Szilard wrote in his letter to Stalin (1947): -
It will only be a question of time, a few short years perhaps, until peace will
be at the mercy of some Yugoslav general
in the Balkans or some American admiral in the Mediterranean who may willfully
or through bungling create an incident that will inevitably result in a new
war.16 -- In Yugoslavia we witness today the Catholic [Croatian]-Eastern
Orthodox [Serbian]-Islam [Bosnian] conflict, and the superpower play behind it,
having turned again to war. As Leo Szilard has summarized: - You don't
have to be cleverer, you just have to be
one day earlier.
-
My father taught me that one gains very little knowledge of how to behave as a
nation from looking at year-to-year changes. To find the true worth of
historical experience, one must examine generations - Von Kármán recalled. It is Central Europe where history
happens. World War I erupted in Sarajevo (Bosnia). World War II started in
Danzig (Gdansk, Poland). The focus of the present greatest European conflict
was again Sarajevo. Condensed historical experiences enable the scientists
living here to notice the trends more acutely than those living in quieter
regions. Dennis Gabor had already written in 1938: What a Price of
Peace!
-
President Wilson's 1919 doctrine about national self-determination was so
self-evidently right that people did not see what nonsense it was. - The problem is that people in Bosnia, Chechnya,
Kurdistan, and elsewhere still believe in it.
John
von Neumann also wrote in June 1938: - I think , that there will be war,
although it may be at a distance of a half year or perhaps even one or two
years. - (The exact time of grace left was 15 months.) About the Western
surrender in the case of Czechoslovakia in Munich (30 September 1938) he said: -
I can only say that Mr. Chamberlain obviously wanted to do me a great personal
favor. I needed a postponement of the next world war very badly - because
Neumann traveled to Budapest to marry in November. In 1940 the German army cut
through France as Neumann predicted, but he also expressed the unbelievable
views that Britain would deter a German invasion, and whichever
president was going to be elected in 1940, would probably bring America into
the war in 1941. (So it happened.) He thought that free mankind's two
enemies (Hitler and Stalin, that time allies) might by then be doing the
nice thing of fighting each other. - Stanislav Ulam, a fellow mathematician
at the Manhattan Project, said: - I can testify that in his forecasts of
political events leading to World War II and of military events during the war,
most of von Neumann's gueesses were amazingly correct.l7
Egon
Orowan - a physicist turned mechanical engineer - picked up writings of
Ibn-Khaldun, the l4th century Tunisian Arab historian, about the rise,
maturation, and senescence of Arabic tribes from dynamic beginnings to rich and
decadent ends, when they are replaced by a new wave of dynamic invaders. Orowan
has found many parallels to these in modern Western societies where economics
becomes to be of central importance. Beginning at Adam Smith and Malthus,
Orowan concluded that the present problems of industralized Western societies
result from ever increasing productivity which replaces the old crafts of many
skilled craftsmen with automated industries. The outcome is chronic
unemployment followed by government's "charity" in the form of armanent
industry, in government contracts for public work and research centers not
necessarily needed by society. Orowan liked to call his approach to socionomy,
coined from sociology+economy.
-
Till now man has been up against Nature, from now on he will be up against his
own nature - said Dennis Gabor.l8 - Our civilization faces
three great dangers. The first is destruction by nuclear war, the second is
overpopulation, and the third is the Age of Leisure. For the first time in
history we are now faced with the possibility of a world in which only a
minority needs work to keep the great majority in idle luxury. Soon the
minority which has to work for the rest may be so small that it could be
entirely recruited from the most gifted part of the population. Almost every
important invention unbalances the front of progress, and a new invention is
needed to redress the balance. Disinfectants have reduced child mortality, and
we need the "pill" to keep the
population in bounds. The steam engine, the internal combustion engine are
threatening our stock of fossile fuel with exhaustion; we must have nuclear
power and later on thermonuclear power. We cannot stop inventing, because we
are riding a tiger.
*
-
It's like sailing a boat when the wind shifts on you but for some reason, maybe
because you are down below, you don't even sense
that the wind has changed until the boat suddenly keels over. What worked before doesn't work
anymore; you need to steer the boat in a different direction quickly before you
are in trouble, yet you have to get a feel of the new direction and the
strength of the wind before you can hope to right the boat and set a new
course. And the tough part is that it is exactly at times like this that hard
and definite actions are required. So the ability to recognize that the winds
have shifted and to take appropriate action
before you wreck your boat is crucial to the future of an enterprise. - This is what Andrew Grove, a skilled navigator says
about his experiences, failures, and successes.14
Perhaps
the storms experienced by Martian sailors beforehand in Europe enabled Szilard
to sense the approach of the Atomic Era and Neumann to feel the coming of the
Computer Era. What do common terrestrials do when the storm arrives?
-
When the environment changes in such a way as to render the old skills and
strengths less relevant, we almost
instinctively cling to our past. We refuse to acknowledge changes around us,
almost like a child who doesn't like what he's seeing so he closes his eyes and counts to 100 and figures that what
bothered him will go away. The phrase you're likely to hear from grownups at
such times is "Just give us a bit more time."14
*
Correct
forecasting of the future may make money. - Countervailing forces usually
prevail, but occasionally they fail. That is when we have a change of regime or
revolution. I am particularly interested in this occasion. I can do better in
the financial markets than dealing with history in general, because financial
markets provide a more clearly defined space and the data are quantified and
publicly available - George Soros said.l9 - My basic idea is that our
understanding of the world in which we live is inherently imperfect. There is
always a discrepancy between the participant's views and expectations and the
actual state of affairs. Sometimes the discrepancy is so small that it can be
disregarded but, at other times, the gap is so large that it becomes
an important factor in determining the course of events. History is made by
the participants' errors, biases, and misconceptions. - Citizens of
quiet regions may afford to believe in a fixed set of values, but Hungarians
cannot afford it. This is how Soros explains his successful intuitions:
-
Rationality has its uses, but it also
has its limitations. If we insist on staying within the limits of reason, we
cannot cope with the world in which we
live. By contrast, a belief in our fallibility can take us much farther. It can
guide us through life.
Andrew
Grove gives the following diagnosis on the state of the world: - When most
companies of a previously regulated economy are suddenly thrust into a
compatitive environment, the changes multiply. Management now has to excel in
the midst of a global cacophony of competing products, and every person on the
labor force suddenly must compete for his or her job with employees of similar
companies on the other side of the globe. When such fundamental changes hit a
whole economy simultaneously, their impact is cataclysmic. They affect an
entire country's political system, its social norms and its way of life. This
is what we see in the former Soviet Union and, in a more controlled fashion, in
China. l4
George
Soros warnsl9 that the West is now missing a
special opportunity to lead the former communist world from the closed
societies of the past into the open community of nations: - We do not have
much time to come to our senses. The collapse of the Soviet Empire meant the
end of a stable world order that prevailed during the Cold War, only we did not
realize it. We carry on with business as usual while all our institutions of
collective security are disappearing. The collapse of communism was a
revolutionary event, and a revolution creates opportunities! - Later
he added [Time, 10 July 1995]: - We have missed the opportunity, and
now it will be forty years in the wilderness.
Saving
the world
A
trait related to this peculiar property of the Martians was that they even
tried to save the world. Some of them were considered to be hawks,
others were doves, but each of them felt convinced that he was right.20 - We were - and still are -
trying to shape the future at a time when this idea doesn't have
broad currency. We were - and are - to be early movers - as Andrew Grove
wrote.l4 It may be due to the rich
historical heritage of the Martians that they all liked to offer advice, even
to Presidents. Leo Szilard urged President Roosevelt to develop nuclear
power. President Kennedy answered his letters about the importance of a
superpower dialoge, resulting in the Washington-Moscow hot line. Szilard also
contacted Khrushchev, Nehru, and the Pope. Theodore von Kármán
advised President Kennedy on supersonic flight and ballistic missiles; he
met Stalin and Gandhi as well. Eugene P. Wigner pressed President
Johnson on civil defense. John von Neumann advised President Eisenhower
on nuclear and rocket armaments. His daughter, Marina von Neumann advised
President Nixon on economic affairs. Albert Szent-Györgyi travelled
to Moscow to inform Stalin about the misbehavior of the Red Army in Hungary;
invited President Kennedy to his home; criticized President Johnson bitterly
for his war in Vietnam; even wrote a Presidential Speech - never told. John
G. Kemeny advised President Carter on the safety of nuclear plants
at the time of the Three Mile Island accident. Edward Teller advised
President Reagan on Star Wars; he is in contact with the prime ministers of
Israel and Hungary concerning national modernization programs. Elie Wiesel received
the Medal of the Congress and President Reagan made him chairman of The
President's Commission of the Holocaust. George Soros asked President
Clinton to devote more attention to Central-Eastern Europe. As journalists
claim, Soros used to have breakfast with one head of state, and dinner with
another one on the very same day. - I am not ashamed of my messianic
fantasies; the world would be a grim place without such fantasies.l9
In
the middle of the night Arthur Koestler called and woke up Gaitskell,
the leader of the British Labour Party, before Gaitskell's visit to Moscow,
asking for his intervention at Krushchev in order to save the life of the
Hungarian writer Tibor Déry after 1956 - and he succeeded. In the 1930s,
during his visits to the Soviet Union, Michael Polanyi contacted
Bukharin, chief of scientific and technological planning. In conclusion, let us
quote Dennis Gabor, one of the most ardent prophets, who took a long
view ahead in his evangelium entitled Inventing the Future.
-
Technological development is much too fast to be matched by biological
adaptation of man. Moses showed the
Promised Land to his people, but then he led them around for forty years in the
wilderness until a new generation worthy of it had grown up. Now forty years is
not an unreasonable estimate for educating a new generation which can live in
leisure, but we must find a better equivalent of the wilderness. At the present
stage of technology the time ought to be shorter - merely the time to train
teachers and for the teachers to train the first generation of modern workers.
It is not so much the education of the people which is slow but the education
of the leaders.
The
prophecies of Hungarians were not always appreciated by their fellow
scientists. Still, eventually, some of their forecasts and advice were
acknowledged in America - because they worked. This has made the liberation of
nuclear power also a Martian success story. The first six recipients of the Atoms
for Peace Award were Niels Bohr (1957) for the theory of the atom
and its nucleus, George de Hevesy (1958) for radioactive tracing and its
application in medicine, Leo Szilard and Eugene Wigner (1959), as
well as Alvin Martin Weinberg and Walter Henry Zinn (1960), "to
honor the four men, who, of all men living, have done most to originate and
perfect the nuclear fission chain reactor. It alone, of all devices thus far
conceived, provides practical means for utilizing the energy of the atomic
nucleus and producing radio-isotopes in abundance. These gifts of the atom, if
used wisely, will be of inestimable benefit to mankind. " - (A Dane, a
Canadian, an American and three Hungarians make up this list.)
REFERENCES
- George Marx: "Beszélgetés
Marslakókkal" (interviews in Hungarian). OOK-Press, Veszprém,
Hungary (1992) 145 pages. George Marx: "The Voice of the
Martians;" first edition Eötvös Physical Society, Budapest
(1993) 230 pages; second edition Hungarian Academy Press, Budapest (1997),
420 pages. This paper is essentially a chapter from the last quoted book.
- First page in Francis
Crick's book: "The Life Itself." Macdonald, London 1982.
- Norman Macrea: "John
von Neumann." Pantheon Books, New York (1992)
- Richard Rhodes: "The
Making of the Atomic Bomb." Simon&Schuster, N.Y.(1986)
- Leon Lederman: "The
God Particle." Boston (1993)
- "Hungarians in
Film." Magyar Filmunió, Budapest (1996), p.6.
- Proceedings of the Royal
Society, A336 (1974) p. 141.
- Arthur Koestler: "The
Boredom of Phantasy" (1955)
- A. Blumberg - G. Owens:
"Energy and Conflict." G. P. Putnam, New York (1976)
- Newsweek, 17 February 1997
- "Hungarians in
Film," loc.cit. p.53.
- Arthur Koestler: "The
Act of Creation." Hutchinson, London (1964)
- Arthur Koestler: "The
Sleepwalkers." Hutchinson, London-Macmillan, N.Y. (1959)
- Andrew S. Grove:
"Only the Paranoid Survive." Doubleday, New York (1996)
- Leo Szilard: "His
Version of Facts," selected recollections; editors S. R. Weart - G.
Szilard. MIT Press, Cambridge MA (1978)
- Sending this letter was
not permitted. Printed in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.
- "John von Neumann
Memorial Volume" (1958)
- Dennis Gabor:
"Inventing the Future." Alfred A. Knopf, New York (1964)
- George Soros - B. Wien -
K. Koenen: "Soros on Soros." John Wiley, New York (1995)
- This
aspect has been emphasized by Gábor Palló.